A Minority Government

Here is the 2009 Nova Scotia election compared with the September 5, 2013 Corporate Research Associates poll (Green Party omitted).  Of course, this does not account for the reconfiguration of ridings, resulting in one fewer district and many updated and changed boundaries.  It assumes the same boundaries and the same voters.

Party	2009 Votes	Percent	2009 Seats	September 5 Poll	By Percentage	2013 Prediction
Liberal	112160	28%	11	41%	21	22
PC	101203	25%	10	26%	14	10
NDP	186546	47%	31	31%	16	20
TOTAL	399909	100%	52	98%	51	52

The 2009 Map:

Since the voting is unevenly distributed by riding, the question is whether the percentages in the new poll will be enough to tip the balance in any particular riding.  For example, in close ridings, a few votes may be enough to change the outcome, while a surge for Liberals would not be enough in heavily NDP ridings.

Riding by riding gets

Riding	2013	2009	Change?
Annapolis	Liberal	Liberal
Antigonish	PC	PC
Argyle	PC	PC
Bedford-Birch Cove	Liberal	Liberal
Cape Breton Centre	NDP	NDP
Cape Breton North	PC	PC
Cape Breton Nova	NDP	NDP
Cape Breton South	Liberal	Liberal
Cape Breton West	Liberal	PC	Y
Chester-St. Margaret's	NDP	NDP
Clare	Liberal	Liberal
Colchester North	PC	PC
Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley	NDP	NDP
Cole Harbour	NDP	NDP
Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage	NDP	NDP
Cumberland North	NDP	NDP
Cumberland South	PC	PC
Dartmouth East	Liberal	Liberal
Dartmouth North	Liberal	NDP	Y
Dartmouth South-Portland Valley	Liberal	NDP	Y
Digby-Annapolis	Liberal	Liberal
Eastern Shore	PC	NDP	Y
Glace Bay	Liberal	Liberal
Guysborough-Sheet Harbour	NDP	NDP
Halifax Atlantic	NDP	NDP
Halifax Chebucto	Liberal	NDP	Y
Halifax Citadel	Liberal	NDP	Y
Halifax Clayton Park	Liberal	Liberal
Halifax Fairview	NDP	NDP
Halifax Needham	NDP	NDP
Hammonds Plains-Upper Sackville	Liberal	NDP	Y
Hants East	NDP	NDP
Hants West	Liberal	PC	Y
Inverness	PC	PC
Kings North	PC	NDP	Y
Kings South	Liberal	NDP	Y
Kings West	Liberal	Liberal
Lunenburg	NDP	NDP
Lunenburg West	Liberal	NDP	Y
Pictou Centre	PC	NDP	Y
Pictou East	NDP	NDP
Pictou West	NDP	NDP
Preston	Liberal	Liberal
Queens	NDP	NDP
Richmond	Liberal	Liberal
Sackville-Cobequid	NDP	NDP
Shelburne	NDP	NDP
Timberlea-Prospect	NDP	NDP
Truro-Bible Hill	NDP	NDP
Victoria-The Lakes	Liberal	PC	Y
Waverley-Fall River-Beaver Bank	Liberal	NDP	Y
Yarmouth	PC	PC

14 seats have changed hands as follows:

		2009
		PC	NDP	Liberal	TOTAL
2013	PC	7	3		10
	NDP		20		20
	Liberal	3	8	11	22
	TOTAL	10	31	11	52

Interestingly, Liberals gain 3 PC seats, balanced by PC gains of 3 NDP seats.

The 2013 Map: